CIO Speak: The market rodeo of trump’s first 100 days

When President Trump was elected in Nov 2024, we had a certain set of expectations. Broadly, we anticipated a pro-business stance and the promotion of tax cuts, both of which are a positive trigger for equity markets. We also expected some form of trade-related economic warfare, as a strategy to negotiate his way through global supply chains. What we didn’t foresee was the extent of aggression he would adopt to achieve his objectives. We also underestimated his ability to disrupt trade relations in his single-minded pursuit of gaining the upper hand when it comes to reducing the U.S trade deficit.

Highlights

• Major indices across Asia, Europe and emerging markets also fell during Trump’s second term, suggesting global unease with the U.S. trade aggression.
• The imposition of steep tariffs in 2025 led to inflationary concerns, disrupted supply chains and retaliatory actions from key trading partners.
• Markets in 2025 reflected deeper anxieties not just about trade, but about institutional integrity (e.g., the Fed), global diplomacy and the long-term role of the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency.
• The Indian rupee has outperformed most emerging market currencies, showing notable stability and resilience. We are currently in a favorable interest rate cycle, with RBI cutting rates and maintaining surplus system liquidity to ensure effective transmission of these cuts.